General Election Polls Suggest Possibility of Electoral College Tie

April 20th, 2008

The webpage www.electoral-vote.com tracks individual state polls for the general election for president. Professor Andrew Tanenbaum, who runs this site, suggests that if the major party nominees are Barack Obama and John McCain, a likely electoral vote result (based on polls released on April 19 and preceding days) is 269 electoral votes for each candidate.

The tie comes about if Obama carries California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin; and if McCain carries the other 29 states.

Defenders of the Electoral College never mention the disadvantage that the Electoral College can produce a tie. In case of a tie, the newly-elected House of Representatives would choose the president, with each state getting one vote. A state whose delegation is split evenly loses its vote.

www.ballot-access.org

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